Van Orden's Trump Ride: A Third-Term Gamble in Wisconsin
Rep. Derrick Van Orden's decision to ride with former President Donald Trump on the campaign trail is more than a photo opportunity—it is a strategic declaration. By tying his third-term bid to Trump's national brand, Van Orden is betting that the former president's pull in rural western Wisconsin will outweigh the risks of alienating the suburban swing voters who have drifted toward Democrats in recent cycles.
The calculation is not without logic. Trump's base remains the most reliable turnout engine in the state's conservative strongholds, and Van Orden's district—stretching from the Mississippi River to the outskirts of Madison—contains deep-red territory where a Trump endorsement can still move primary and general election numbers. But the district also includes Dane County's western fringe and La Crosse, where independent voters have shown a willingness to split tickets when national politics feels too loud.
A Nationalized Race With Local Stakes
Riding with Trump effectively nationalizes the contest, shifting attention from local issues like dairy policy and rural broadband to the broader fight over the White House. For Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL who has styled himself as a pragmatic conservative, the move risks submerging his own record under the former president's polarizing shadow. It also hands Democrats a ready-made attack line: that Van Orden is a loyalist first and a district representative second.
Yet the strategy may be the only viable one. In a district where Trump remains broadly popular, a candidate who keeps the former president at arm's length could face a primary challenge from the right. By embracing the ride, Van Orden consolidates his flank and hopes that the general election becomes a turnout war—one where his campaign's ground game, boosted by Trump's rallies, can out-mobilize Democratic enthusiasm in the cities.
The real test will come in the suburbs, where the national mood often overrides local loyalty. If Trump's presence energizes the base without repelling the middle, Van Orden's bet pays off. If it does both, Wisconsin's most watched House race could become a bellwether for the state's political future.