Once Upon A Time In Las Vegas – Championship Sunday
The New Orleans Pelicans (24-25 ATS) enter their second game of a back-to-back. This on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks (26-21-2 ATS). The matchup takes place at Fiserve Forum at 8:00 PM Eastern.
This article was written prior to the completion of the Pelicans v. Wizard’s contest.
Let’s dive in.
Buck’s Win 3 Straight
The Bucks started off hot against the Pacers, tallying 45 points in the first quarter alone, and ending the half with 85. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks in scoring with 41 points and 12 rebounds. The Bucks won the battle on the glass, and brought in 14 offensive boards while holding the Pacers to just 5. Milwaukee was loose with the ball at times and ended the night with 16 turnovers. Jrue Holiday finished just shy of a triple-double with 20 points, nine rebounds and nine assists.
The Bucks enter this game with a net scoring margin of +1.7 which is good for 10th in the league. The offense has been generating most of their points from the outside as they are top five in both 3-point attempts and makes per contest. On the season they are connecting on 36% of their perimeter shots, which is right around league average. On the inside Milwaukee is ranks toward the bottom of the NBA in terms of points per game, scoring just 44.6 points per contest. The defense has been very good, despite allowing 131 in their last game. On the season Milwaukee’s shooting defense is 4th in the country, holding opponents to 45.7% from the floor. While the shooting defense has been good, the defense ranks second last in the league in opponent field goal attempts per game. This can bode for some trouble when opponents catch fire against the Bucks as they just don’t force many steals on the defensive end. On the glass, Milwaukee has been dominant on both the offensive and defensive end. They are 8th in the league in offensive rebound rate and lead the league in defensive rebounds per game. If the Bucks can control the glass here, as they have often done, they should command this ball game.
Pelicans Look To End Skid
New Orleans has hit a bit of a rough patch as they have now dropped six straight. They enter this game coming off a three game home stint, and will travel from New Orleans to Milwaukee without any rest. The Pelicans are currently trailing at home to the Wizards and would be on pace to drop three straight games at home. In their previous matchup the Pelicans faced the Timberwolves. The Pelicans entered the half with a six point lead, but got outscored by 18 points in the third quarter. The Pelicans won the battle on the glass and held the Timberwolves to just four offensive boards. New Orleans capitalized on the turnovers by Minnesota, totaling 18 total points off turnovers. CJ McCollum led the Pelicans with 25 points and eight assists.
The Pelicans enter this contest with a net scoring margin of +2.3 which is 8th in the league. The offense has been most effective inside as they are 6th in the NBA in points in the paint per game, generating just under 55 per contest. From the perimeter the Pelicans don’t take too many shots as they are bottom three in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game and they are hovering around league average knocking down 35.8% of their tries. The offense has also been pretty fluid as they are assisting on 61.3% of their made baskets. The defense has been somewhat inconsistent as they lead the league in opponent 3-point shooting, holding opposition to just 34.1% beyond the arc. But they are among the worst in the NBA in opponent 2-point shooting. As such, they have the tendency to allow teams to be very effective in the painted area and mid-range game. The Pelicans have also been strong on the glass as well. They are top 10 in offensive rebound rate as they bring in 26% of their missed shots. On the defensive end the Pelicans are holding opponents to bring in just 22.5% of their missed baskets, which is 5th in the NBA. This game will likely feature a winner who also won the battle on the boards as each of these teams have thrived bringing down the rock.
Full game side bet
The Pelicans have had a rough go of it of late and I’m not sure a change of scenery with a rest disadvantage will change the tune. Milwaukee has been unstoppable lately offensively as they have scored 130 or more in four of their last six. Meanwhile the Pelicans have been held under 100 in two of their last three. Milwaukee should get a boost from the role players at home and I expect the Bucks to continue their strong rebounding presence in this one. Lay the points with Milwaukee.
Prediction: Milwaukee -8.5
Full game total pick
As highlighted the Bucks offense has been on an absolute tear of late. As this offensive feat has taken place, the Bucks have been averaging three more possessions per game than their season average. New Orleans will look to run with them as they are one of faster paced teams in the league as well. The Pelicans have also been strong converting opposing turnovers into quick points and both of these teams have been strong on the offensive glass as well. The over is the play here. The last 6 meetings in Milwaukee between these teams have gone over the total.
Prediction: Over 234
Caleb Davis, “Caleb Davis”
I have been a basketball junkie my entire life and I played basketball up and into college, where l eventually hung it up for the last time. I was very competitive and that has translated over into sports wagering. It drove me to look at games and scour over film and trends to find that same advantage. Majoring in technology management in college, l spent hours studying markets and how they operate. While seeming efficient, they almost never are. This allows a savvy participant to exploit opportunities; in other words, to find their edge. Immediately l made the connection between general markets, and betting markets. What l bring to the table is a ceaseless drive to continually find my edge, the ability to capitalize on market movement, and the data, trends, and stats to confirm my assertion. My hunger for success is why you will be happy to read my breakdowns. No stone will go unturned to find you a winner.
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